IEA Forecasts Ukraine Winter Power Shortages

Ukraine is likely to experience electricity shortages in the 2026-27 heating season, according to the International Energy Agency, with their severity dependent on Russian attacks and the weather. Its assessment, Ukraine’s energy security 2026, published on 4 November 2026, sets out measures for connecting generation equipment, managing peak demand and maintaining heat supplies.

The IEA says Ukraine began the winter with better equipment provision than a year earlier. Additions over the past year included roughly 400 megawatts of distributed gas-fired generating capacity, wind generation and battery storage. Ukraine also established strategic equipment reserves.

Damage before the heating season affected electricity generation, power networks, gas facilities and oil infrastructure, according to the agency. It says Russia has started deploying jet-powered drones whose greater speed makes interception more difficult.

For the previous winter, the assessment credits electricity imports and decentralized generation with helping manage interruptions, while finding that neither was fully used. Delivered generators took longer to connect than anticipated. Import volumes were sometimes constrained by market provisions, including price caps, while network bottlenecks restricted supplies reaching eastern regions.

The IEA puts the electricity import ceiling for the Ukraine-Moldova block at 2,450 megawatts, insufficient on its own to cover the projected supply shortfall. It identifies eastern Ukraine as particularly exposed because of constraints within the transmission network.

Connecting equipment already in Ukraine could provide additional generation within weeks, the report says. Its recommendations also include battery use and consumer measures to lower evening peak demand. Ukraine has contracted as much as 810 megawatts of additional generation and storage for ancillary services, but the IEA says current rules prevent its use for other system requirements. Batteries owned by households and businesses could help meet peak demand if regulations allow.

The assessment also examines whether local equipment can continue supplying electricity when sections of the network are disconnected. This capability, known as island mode, was available in few local generators or batteries when grid connections were cut, according to the report.

District heating serves more than 30% of Ukrainian households, the IEA says, and attacks on those systems increased during the preceding two winters. Heating failures may prompt households to use electric heaters, adding to electricity demand. In some locations, smaller units producing both heat and electricity, together with modular boiler houses linked to district-heating networks, have been used to sustain heating during attacks.

For the 2027-28 heating season, the agency’s recommendations include beginning procurement now, pooling purchases and maintaining strategic inventories of equipment and spare parts. Delivery of items such as small co-generation units and substation equipment takes six to nine months, according to the assessment.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.