CREA Estimates China’s Q3 CO2 Emissions Fell 3.1%
China’s energy and industrial sectors emitted an estimated 3.1% less CO2 in the third quarter of 2026 than a year earlier, according to CREA analysis covering fossil fuels and cement production. The analysis put the quarterly reduction at the largest recorded since the Covid lockdowns of 2022.
The estimates appeared in a guest analysis published by Carbon Brief on 6 November 2026. Its author, Lauri Myllyvirta, was identified in the publication as CREA’s lead analyst.
Electricity generation from solar, wind and nuclear sources increased by a combined 110 terawatt-hours compared with the third quarter of 2025, according to the analysis. That addition exceeded twice the quarter’s increase in overall electricity demand. Output from coal-fired power plants, meanwhile, was 3.3% below its year-earlier level.
For transport, CREA estimated a 9% year-on-year reduction in oil consumption during the quarter. Electric vehicles represented 67% of passenger-car sales in September 2026, while electricity consumption by EVs increased 53% year on year in the third quarter. The analysis treated the electricity-use figure as evidence that vehicles already in the electric fleet were being used more.
Across all uses, CREA put the quarterly reductions in coal and oil consumption at 3% and 4%, respectively, compared with the same period in 2025. Alongside the emissions decrease, it identified less coal consumption for electricity production, lower oil consumption in transport and a slower rate of expansion in coal-to-chemical production.
The industrial picture also included further reductions in emissions associated with steelmaking and cement production, according to the analysis. Those decreases occurred alongside shrinking construction activity in the third quarter of 2026.
CREA also recorded slower growth in energy demand during the quarter. Its assessment attributed some, but not all, of that slowdown to weather that was milder than usual.
For January through September 2026, the analysis estimated emissions were 0.5% below the corresponding 2025 total. On a rolling 12-month basis, CREA said emissions had remained level or declined since March 2024. Reuters explained that this measure reduces the effect of seasonal variation, distinguishing it from the comparison between individual quarters.
* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.