Ireland’s Summer Droughts Intensify as Climate Change Alters Weather Patterns

Recent research has identified a clear link between human-driven climate change and the intensification of summer droughts in Ireland, with studies showing increased temperatures and evaporative demand as key factors.

According to a study led by Maynooth University with support from Met Éireann and Teagasc, human-caused warming has made extreme July potential evapotranspiration (PET) about eight times more probable and roughly 7% more intense. The same research estimated that maximum summer temperatures similar to those in 2026 are now around 40 times more likely, with minimum temperatures of that year becoming over 1,000 times more probable due to climate change.

Met Éireann reported that the summer of 2026 set a new national temperature record, reaching an average of 16.28 °C. This figure surpassed the previous record by 0.09 °C and was 2.03 °C higher than the 1961-1990 average. Rainfall during this period was also lower than usual, with the season ranking as the 22nd driest since 1941 and precipitation at 78% of the 1991-2020 long-term average.

During July 2026, twelve weather stations, mainly in the Midlands, South, and East, recorded absolute droughts lasting from 15 to 27 days. Oak Park in County Carlow experienced a partial drought lasting 66 days, the longest such event recorded since 1941. The study concluded that increased temperatures and greater evaporative demand, rather than reduced rainfall, were the main contributors to the intensification of summer drying in Ireland.

What the numbers show

• Extreme July PET was about 8 times more likely due to human-caused warming.
• Summer 2026 had a national average temperature of 16.28 °C.
• Oak Park, Co Carlow, recorded a 66-day partial drought in 2026.
• Summer 2026 rainfall was 78% of the 1991-2020 average.

The research also found that while extremely dry Julys may be less frequent, when they do occur, rainfall totals can be even lower. Projections indicate that if global warming reaches 3 °C, July PET could rise by nearly 6% above current levels. The study further highlighted that wetter winters, defined as rainfall from October to March, have become about 35 times more likely and approximately 27% more intense due to human-caused climate change.

EPA research projects that by the end of the century, increases in PET combined with drier summers and wetter winters will lead to greater aridity, particularly in the east and Midlands. This is expected to increase both the frequency and severity of summer droughts in these regions.

High-resolution climate projections from the EPA indicate that Irish summers could become up to 8% drier under certain scenarios by 2071-2100, while autumn and winter may see rainfall increases of up to 10%. These projections are based on the SSP5-8.5 scenario, which assumes continued high greenhouse gas emissions.

A recent study published in Discover Environment found that droughts in Ireland are becoming more persistent, shifting from seasonal occurrences to prolonged events. Additionally, a Europe-wide study in Nature Geoscience identified increased evaporative demand from warming as a primary driver of summer drying across the continent, including Ireland.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.