European Gas Prices Remain High as Storage Levels Drop and LNG Supply Tightens

European gas markets have experienced ongoing volatility due to low storage levels and disruptions in global LNG supply, with prices remaining elevated as the region heads into the winter of 2026/27.

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and conflict in the Middle East have sharply reduced LNG shipments, leading to higher prices on the Dutch TTF gas market. Gulf LNG loadings have dropped to about 26 cargoes per month since late February, compared to a typical 90 to 100 cargoes, contributing to multi-year high prices in Europe.

Europe’s reliance on LNG has increased, with US LNG accounting for 58% of European LNG imports in 2025. This shift has raised the region’s exposure to global supply disruptions, especially as Qatari LNG export capacity remains impaired and some facilities are offline for extended periods.

High prices during the injection season discouraged storage filling, resulting in EU storage reaching a seasonal low of 44.7% by mid-2026. By early September 2026, storage levels stood at approximately 65%, which is historically low for that time of year and well below seasonal norms.

What the numbers show

• EU gas storage was around 71% full entering winter 2026/27, the lowest in 15 years.
• TTF prices reached €55.65/MWh in mid-July 2026 after military escalation.
• Analysts forecast TTF winter prices to average €85/MWh, about 20% above the forward curve.
• Gulf LNG loadings fell to roughly 26 cargoes per month, down from 90–100 normally.

Analysts have stated that TTF winter prices could average about €85 per megawatt-hour, with quarterly averages of €88 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and €83 in the first quarter of 2027. These figures are roughly 20% higher than the forward curve for the period.

Following a US-Iran agreement in mid-June, TTF prices temporarily eased to around €42.5/MWh for July 2026. However, renewed military escalation in July led to the front-month Dutch TTF contract climbing to €55.65/MWh, reflecting the ongoing sensitivity of prices to geopolitical events.

The Middle East conflict has affected nearly 20% of global LNG supply, pushing natural gas prices in both Europe and Asia to their highest levels since the 2022/23 energy crisis. European gas storage levels remain well below seasonal averages, which continues to put upward pressure on prices if disruptions persist.

Weak economics for gas injection and ongoing geopolitical risks have limited storage preparedness in Europe, despite the increased risk environment. The combination of low storage, reduced LNG supply, and high prices has created ongoing challenges for the European gas market as the region prepares for the winter season.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.