Climate Change Intensifies Risks for Informal Settlement Residents in Buffalo City

Climate change is increasing the vulnerability of people living in informal settlements, with Buffalo City serving as a notable example due to its large population in such areas and exposure to climate hazards.

Approximately a quarter of Buffalo City’s population resides in informal settlements and backyard dwellings, distributed across 156 locations. These settlements represent a substantial portion of the region’s housing, highlighting the scale of informal living arrangements in the metropolitan area.

Within the Eastern Cape province, Buffalo City’s informal settlements and backyard dwellings account for about 40% of all informal households. This concentration places a significant number of residents at heightened risk from environmental challenges linked to climate change.

Globally, people living in informal settlements encounter increased exposure to climate hazards such as flooding, drought, extreme heat, and sea-level rise. Social, economic, and environmental inequalities contribute to these elevated risks, making adaptation and resilience efforts more complex in these communities.

What the numbers show

• Buffalo City has 156 informal settlements and backyard dwelling areas.
• Roughly 25% of the metro’s population lives in these informal settings.
• Buffalo City’s informal households make up 40% of the Eastern Cape’s total.

Climate change acts as a threat multiplier in informal urban systems, intensifying hazards like heat stress, flooding, and infrastructure failure. Residents of these areas often lack secure tenure, adequate services, and risk-reducing infrastructure, which increases their exposure to climate-related events.

In Buffalo, average air temperature has risen by about 1.6°F since the 1990s, with projections indicating a further increase of 3°F to 5°F by 2050. These changes contribute to more frequent and intense rainfall, which can further impact vulnerable communities lacking robust infrastructure.

Flooding in informal settlements has led to displacement, asset loss, and damage to infrastructure in various coastal cities, including Accra, Lagos, Freetown, Maputo, and Dar es Salaam. Such events disrupt livelihoods and highlight the broader challenges faced by informal settlement dwellers in urban environments.

Buffalo’s housing stock, particularly on the East Side, is often older and poorly insulated, which increases residents’ susceptibility to both heat and cold. This situation raises the risk of illness and mortality, especially as climate change continues to alter local weather patterns.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.