IEA Reports First Oil Surplus Since Iran War Began

October brought the first global oil surplus since the start of the Iran war, according to the International Energy Agency. Supply outpaced demand during the month, the agency said in its November 2026 Oil Market Report, published on 13 November 2026.

The inventory picture remained mixed. The IEA recorded an October increase of 52 million barrels in observed worldwide oil stocks, equivalent to an average daily addition of 1.7 million barrels. Even with that increase, observed global inventories were cumulatively 462 million barrels lower than when the war began. Stocks held on land continued falling and stood at their lowest level since at least 2016, according to the agency.

Worldwide oil supply reached 105.4 million barrels a day in October after an increase of 2.3 million barrels a day, the IEA said. For Gulf exports excluding Oman, the agency recorded daily volumes of 18.4 million barrels, leaving them 26% below their pre-war level.

Crude oil accounted for the leading part of the Gulf export recovery during October, according to the report. Crude flows amounted to 15 million barrels a day, putting them at 82% of the level recorded before the war.

For the fourth quarter of 2026, the IEA’s November balance projects supply exceeding demand by an average of 1.7 million barrels a day. Reuters reported that the agency’s earlier forecast for the same quarter had put demand above supply.

The IEA identified attacks on shipping as a risk that could weaken its projected recovery. Its assessment also described oil-product availability as still severely constrained, particularly for diesel.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.