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IEA Forecasts Fourth-Quarter Oil Surplus as Gulf Exports Rise

lite News Desk 2 min read

Global oil supply is forecast to outpace demand in the final quarter of 2026, according to the International Energy Agency’s November Oil Market Report, published on 13 November 2026. Higher Gulf exports underpin its revised supply estimate, with the agency projecting a return to surplus.

The outlook differs from the agency’s assessment published on 14 October 2026. That report projected a deficit for the remainder of the year, with a surplus potentially delayed until 2027. The IEA associated the preceding supply shortfalls with the period since the Iran war began.

For October, the agency put worldwide daily oil supply at 105.4 million barrels, an increase of 2.3 million. It said Gulf exports accounted for the growth despite attacks targeting tankers and energy infrastructure. The IEA also increased its fourth-quarter supply estimate by a daily 3.3 million barrels, citing higher exports from the Gulf.

On demand, the IEA’s full-year forecast puts consumption at a daily average of 102.3 million barrels for 2026, down 2.7 million from the previous year. Its fourth-quarter projection is for a year-on-year reduction of 2.7 million barrels a day, compared with an average daily decline of 4.4 million across the second and third quarters combined.

For 2027, the agency projects demand growth of 2 million barrels a day. Its supply outlook puts the annual decline for 2026 at 4.8 million barrels a day, followed by an increase of 6.6 million in 2027. That would bring next year’s average daily supply to 108.1 million barrels, according to the forecast.

Inventory measurements also changed in October. The IEA recorded a 52-million-barrel increase in observed worldwide stocks, equivalent to 1.7 million barrels a day. It was the first month with an inventory gain since June.

The inventory figures differed between oil at sea and supplies on land. According to the agency, the volume being transported by sea increased by 86 million barrels, while land-based stocks fell further. Those onshore holdings remained at their lowest point since at least 2016.

The IEA said shipping-security risks continued to affect its forecast. Despite the projected surplus in the crude market, the agency also said limited availability of oil products, particularly diesel, remained a concern.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.

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