AI Adoption Slows Job Growth in Exposed Industries, Research Finds

Recent analysis by Goldman Sachs Research examines how artificial intelligence is affecting labor markets in developed economies, focusing on adoption rates and employment trends in sectors with high AI exposure.

Goldman Sachs economists reviewed multiple international surveys to estimate that AI adoption has reached between 15% and 20% in major developed markets, with France, the United States, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom leading. In contrast, emerging economies such as Italy, Japan, and New Zealand show adoption rates between 10% and 15%.

The research indicates that industries with high exposure to AI, including information and communication services, call centers, software publishing, and advertising, have experienced slower employment growth in recent years. According to the findings, entry-level workers, particularly those in Generation Z, are facing greater challenges in securing positions as AI becomes more prevalent in the workplace.

Goldman Sachs Research also reports that employment in call centers has dropped significantly below historical trends, with declines of 39% in the United States, 33% in Canada, and 27% in Germany. The analysis links a 10% occupational exposure to AI with a reduction of about 0.1 percentage point in annual headcount growth in France, Canada, and the United States.

What the numbers show

• AI adoption rates in developed economies range from 15% to 20%.
• Employment in U.S. call centers is 39% below its long-term trend.
• AI is estimated to have reduced U.S. monthly payroll growth by about 16,000 jobs over the past year.
• In Canada and Germany, call center employment is 33% and 27% below trend, respectively.
• A 10% rise in AI exposure is linked to a 0.1 percentage point decrease in annual job growth.

Goldman Sachs Research compiled data from 11 separate surveys to inform these estimates, using statistical algorithms to synthesize findings across countries. The research highlights that the pace of AI adoption is not uniform, with some developed economies adopting AI technologies more rapidly than others.

In addition to overall employment trends, the research identifies that entry-level workers are experiencing more pronounced hiring headwinds. The analysis attributes this to the growing use of AI in tasks traditionally performed by less-experienced employees, particularly in sectors such as call centers and information services.

Goldman Sachs economists estimate that, over the past year, AI has contributed to a reduction of approximately 16,000 jobs per month in U.S. payroll growth. This effect is most visible in sectors with high levels of automation and digitalization, where AI tools are increasingly integrated into routine operations.

Across multiple countries, the data shows that employment losses are most concentrated in roles with high AI exposure, while other sectors have not experienced the same degree of impact. The findings suggest that the effects of AI on labor markets are closely tied to the specific tasks and industries where the technology is implemented.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.